Guide
How Polymarket 5-minute crypto markets settle
Updated 19 October 2026 · Checked against our recorded data
Each Polymarket 5-minute crypto market asks one question: will the coin finish its 5-minute window at or above the price it started at? Here is exactly how that gets decided, checked against our own recordings.
The rule in one line
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) of the coin for the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window. Otherwise it resolves Down. A tie goes to Up.
That wording comes from the rules on every market page, and the resolution source for BTC is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second lookback. Always read the rules on the market you trade, as Polymarket can change them.
Price to beat and final price
Every window has two numbers that decide it: the price to beat, the reference price when the window opens, and the final price, the TWAP value it settles on. Our windows file gives both, plus the result, for every window.
| window_start | price_to_beat | final_price | move_usd | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 12:00:00Z | 82,535.52 | 82,336.95 | -198.57 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:05:00Z | 82,336.95 | 82,274.12 | -62.83 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:10:00Z | 82,274.12 | 82,177.09 | -97.03 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:15:00Z | 82,177.09 | 82,206.49 | 29.40 | UP |
| 2026-10-16 12:20:00Z | 82,206.49 | 82,253.26 | 46.76 | UP |
| 2026-10-16 12:25:00Z | 82,253.26 | 82,235.45 | -17.81 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:30:00Z | 82,235.45 | 82,290.91 | 55.46 | UP |
| 2026-10-16 12:35:00Z | 82,290.91 | 82,171.26 | -119.65 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:40:00Z | 82,171.26 | 82,163.85 | -7.4 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:45:00Z | 82,163.85 | 82,002.34 | -161.52 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:50:00Z | 82,002.34 | 81,932.61 | -69.73 | DOWN |
| 2026-10-16 12:55:00Z | 81,932.61 | 81,942.21 | 9.60 | UP |
In this hour 4 of 12 windows went Up. The table also shows something useful: in 11 of 11 cases the price to beat of a window is exactly the final price of the window before it. Each window starts where the last one finished, so a run of windows forms one continuous price chain.
Why the TWAP matters for strategy
- Late moves count for less. Because the close is an average over the final 60 seconds rather than a single tick, a sharp move in the last few seconds only partly changes the result.
- Spot is not settlement. Exchange prices and the Chainlink stream can differ by a few dollars at any moment. A backtest graded on exchange closes will mislabel close calls.
- Grade on the real result. Use the
resultcolumn, which is Polymarket's own resolution, rather than recomputing it.
Timing
Windows start on every 5-minute boundary in UTC: 288 per coin per day, 2,016 a day across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB and HYPE. The market slug carries the start time as a Unix timestamp, for example btc-updown-5m-1792152000 is the window opening 12:00 UTC on 16 October 2026.
Test it on real data
Every number here can be checked in our free BTC sample: one hour, 12 windows, every book update and every trade. Full history for all seven coins from £1.99 a month.